The Black Swan: A Book Review

I recently finished The Black Swan – The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Over all, an excellent book. (I introduced it with a question here)

Dr. Taleb argues that  Black Swans are events that are unpredictable, or unknown and unknowable and cannot be planned for in concrete, measured terms. and he argues that the most we hope for is to plan our reactions to these events.

One Quibble Off The Top!

One issue that I have is Dr. Taleb’s emphatic proclamations of his Levantine background – being a subset of our (rather arbitrary) geo-political boundaries. With that being said, Dr. Taleb’s liberal use of the term America - well; last time I checked, of the dozen plus countries in the geo-political boundaries of the Americas, only one chose to use it in their name.

Back theTopic

Anyway back the topic, the text introduces, Dr. Taleb’s concept of the Black Swan, then takes some strolls down the sidelines of philosophy, economics (he takes a good swipe at the insularity of economic thinking – most other disciplines are open, and derive theories from other fields of research)and mathematics.

I don’t completely share Dr. Talebs purely empiricist (skeptical empiricism) background, so there are points that I agree with completely, but others that I don’t think pure empiricism evaluates properly.

In the first instance, the randomness, and plain luck that brings each and every one of us to the here and now to me is without question. My Anglo-Saxon family tree includes Scots, Irish, English and Welsh. It was not too long ago that if they were not trying to kill each other – they sure weren’t talking to each other.

For the second, Dr. Taleb refutes the old tenet of  that which doesn’t kill you makes you stronger, empirically – experimentation in deprivation shows general and consistent weakening of the subject – not strengthening. In Corpora, this may be true, but Anima? My argument would be to point to the noted Admiral Stockdale or Alexander Solzhenitsyn.

Dr. Taleb also points out our fallacy on attempting to predict the future based on the past. Now this I could not agree with more. Every day media and texts use the terms; “‘Based on past business cycles…” “Based on past conflicts…” Or in your business; “Based on last years numbers…” What that does not take into effect is either a tipping point or an innovation. A decade ago, the Alta Vista or Webcrawler search engines could assume that “Based on last years numbers our market share will be……” When in fact a tipping point that is unknown and unknowable is just beginning to fire up Google. Before you argue that maybe you should have seen it coming, one of Dr. Talebs key attributes of Black Swans is that they are retroactively explainable (hindsight is always 20-20 !)

Although I think that one genuine argument of this 20-20 hindsight idea is outside of empiricism, that is the less measured skill and strategy of the human mind. The text uses the Apple Macintosh vs. Wintel PC (think the I’m a PC, I’m a Mac advertisements) – having been in the tech business for decades, I know that luck was not Bill Gates’ only asset.

We are then introduced to the concept of unknowledge and G.L.S. Shackleton. Which Dr. Taleb refines as epistemocracy. Regular readers of this blog will note (taking this concept out of pure philosophy) that this is something I have written about several times. (eg Peter Druckers Enter In Ignorance)

For business owners & managers – you cannot predict the futrure based on historical events (although god knows we try) be flexible, learn to dance  As Dr Taleb says;

infinite vigilence is not possible

So rather than waste resources trying to predict the future, use your resources to bend like a grass in the breeze, and move with the wind.

Footnote: Full disclosure, I am not;

a) a mathemetician

b) a philosopher, or;

c) an economist

So I enter in my own ignorance!

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Book Review: (sort of) Grown Up Digital – Part 1

I recently finished Don Tapscotts Grown Up Digital.

In my opinion it definately one of his best.

I pulled enough out of that text for several posts. Each will be part review, part random thoughts.

The book is about the impact that the Gen – Y, or the Millennial, or in Mr. Tapscotts’ term, the Net generation will have on the world as we know it. From retail, to education to the workforce.

It defines the criticisms often levelled at Gen-Y (IE entitled) and then provides evidence that the future is not as bleak as many of these criticisms would imply.

There are a couple of key generalizations in the text;

* that we can wrap a neat box around generational boundaries. I don’t think we can be that precise.

* the examples, anecdotes and interviews with Gen-Y are all primarily knowledge workers.

* the examples also are slanted towards leading edge Gen-Y, those already well into the workforces, with less emphasis on the trailing edge.

One of the issues often assigned to Gen-Y is a casual attitude towards work. Mr. Tapscott tackles that one head on and extensively documents throughout the text that the Gen-Y generation does not want the same ball and chain working environmemnt that their parents and grand parents had. But that it is not necessary to consider that a problem.

Woo Hoo!

I consider this a benefit that has been too long in coming.

Those of us above a certain age will remember mandatory 6 PM Friday do nothing meetings.

Will remember eight hours work deposited on your desk at 3 PM to be completed next morning for 8

Will remember phone calls at all hours demanding useless results for a particular period if time.

I for one am really looking for a change in that corporate ball and chain. If it takes Gen-Y resurgent to make it so;

so be it.

Traditional HR Recruitment – shelve it

Also in the workplace, Mr. Tapscott advocates that the traditional tactics of HR are broken, and should be shelved. He proposes a new paradigm of;

initiate, engage, collaborate, and evolve

My Take?

Why did it take Gen-Y to do this?

One random thought

Mr. Tapscott also mentions that it is increasingly common for Gen-Y to move back into the family home after graduation. A common criticism of this trend is the supposition that with their helicopter parents, the kids are just unable to make it on their own. Mr. Tapscott’s view it is not necessarily that way. His research implies that it is being more comfortable with the peer parent relationship, and taking advantage of the leg up.

UGGGH!

I know my wife and I will argue about it, but just about every species from Penguins to wolves sacrifices to get their young out on their own.

So for me it is purely selfish – I don’t want them back!

I remember reading a statistic years ago that it could cost up to 100 grand to raise a child to age 18. Accounting for today’s dollars and a firmly middle class family with Gen-Y kids – that is probably low.

Extending that age to 26 or 27 would probably double it.

My winter coat is 20 years old, because the cubs want trendy new coats every year. My cell phone & plan are dinosaurs because they need to be on the latest and most expensive. I am tired of the family hauling car and feel that it is now my turn for an empty nester toy. Not to mention university and college costs etc etc.

I admit, it is selfish, but when they spread their wings and fly; fly far, fly fast!

And I still have pages of notes and random thoughts to go!

I think that is the sign of a great book don’t you?

Book Review; Disrupting Class

Disrupting Class

Being a member of a family of past and present educators, I picked up Disrupting Class: How Disruptive Innovation Will Change the Way the World Learns by Clayton M. Christensen, Curtis W. Johnson, and Michael B. Horn.

If you have any responsibility for learning, inside or outside of the education system, (i.e. Human Resources or training staff)this book is worth a read.

The text applies Mr. Christensens’ disruptive innovations theories to the (primarily Western) education system.

The book does not require familiarity with his previous books on disruption, but I found knowing them was beneficial in understanding – in depth, the disruptive innovation context that the authors are describing.

My only issue would be that major projects are often late and cost more than they should. So in the student centric timeline estimated by the authors, I would extend that timeline until all boomers are retired, and even the first waves of Gen-X retireing.

Maybe then we see the much needed context changes described by the authors.

Groundswell

Just finished the book by Charlene Li and Josh Bernoff of Forrester Research.

Written in an engaging style, it ties into research published by Mary Modahl in Now or Never (see Bookshelf) on Technographics and ties it into the current conversational marketing space.

It also does a great job of demonstrating the “gotchas” as well as the benefits.

The text dives into the concepts of community and personal marketing that are commonly called Web 2.0